主題｜Topic：Adaptation cannot keep pace with projected temperature increase
時間｜Time：11月15日（周三）10: 00-12: 00 AM
地點｜Venue：文澴樓709教室｜Class Room 709，WENHUAN
主講｜Speaker
陳帥，北京大學博士，浙江大學長聘副教授、研究員、博士生導師。任教于浙江大學中國農村發展研究院（卡特）、浙江大學公共管理學院，擔任浙江大學農業與農村發展研究所副所長、農經副系主任。研究領域包括農業經濟學、資源環境經濟學和發展經濟學，圍繞氣候變化與中國農業、空氣污染的社會經濟影響等議題開展研究。學術成果發表在 Journal of Development Economics (JDE)、Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economics (JAERE)、Journal of Environmental Economics and Management (JEEM)、Journal of Economic Geography (JEG)、《經濟學(季刊)》 等國内外經濟學頂尖期刊；主持包括浙江省傑出青年科學基金、教育部人文社科重點研究基地重大項目和國家自科基金在内多個科研項目。2022年入選教育部重大青年人才計劃特聘教授，2021年入選浙江大學“仲英青年學者”、2020年獲評“中國青年農業經濟學家年度學者”。
摘要｜Abstract
An emerging argument is that since humans can readily adapt to changing climatic conditions, there is less need to pursue aggressive emissions mitigation strategies. As temperature adaptation is a function of repeated exposure over time, we need empirical approaches that can faithfully depict individuals’ temperature history to rigorously examine this claim. Using a longitudinal dataset representative of China, we construct lifetime temperature exposure unique to each individual based on their birth-dates, birth-locations, and movement history. We show that a 1°C increase in individualized temperature anomalies cause a 2% decrease in 1 S.D. of well-being, where most of the impacts are driven by “hotter-than-expected” weather. In turn, we show that while the adverse impacts of future temperature changes wane after accommodating for adaptation, acclimatization is unlikely to keep pace with future temperature increases except in the net-zero emissions scenario, indicating that stringent GHG emissions cuts are still needed even in this less-pessimistic scenario.
