主題｜Topic：Time-Consistent Fiscal Policy: Cyclical Properties and Political Cycles
時間｜Time：11月15日（周三）14: 30-16: 00
地點｜Venue：文澴樓711教室｜Class Room 711，WENHUAN
主講｜Speaker
馮志鋼，美國内布拉斯加大學奧馬哈分校經濟學副教授。研究領域為宏觀經濟學、公共财政學、及機器學習在宏觀經濟學的應用，研究成果發表在 International Economic Review, Quantitative Economics, Economic Theory, Review of Economic Dynamics, Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization 等國際著名經濟學期刊。
摘要｜Abstract
In this paper we are concerned with cyclical properties and welfare of time-consistent fiscal policy in a fairly general economy with internal and external public debt and po- litical turnover. We explore the general equilibrium effects of the response of elastic labor supply and capital accumulation, the sustainability of the public debt and ma- nipulation of the bond price, the time-consistency of the optimal policy, and the added impact of the political cycle. In our baseline economy, fiscal policy is mildly pro-cyclical under external debt, and highly pro-cyclical under internal debt. We identify political cycles in taxation and government spending for the U.S. and some other advanced economies. A political cycle in taxation could be welfare improving, and adds substan- tially more volatility to economic aggregates under external debt. A political cycle in government spending is only welfare improving under internal debt, and adds roughly the same volatility under external and internal debt.
